• Dodgers dollars, Giants' repeat bid and more – 10 key stories
• Read David Lengel's American League preview – here
*1. Do Dodger dollars add up to a title?*
What does a payroll of more than $230m buy you? Well, a lot of intrigue, expectations and, in the Dodgers' case, a whole lot of uncertainty. You'd think for all the hype around LA's $7bn cable deal that they would have fewer issues around the team but alas – mo money, mo problems. What will manager Don Mattingly's Dodgers get out of the Boston three, Carl Crawford (recovering from Tommy John surgery), Josh Beckett (a bad Spring Training) and Adrian Gonzalez (eh) over the course of a whole season? How will Hanley Ramirez perform after recovering from thumb surgery? What happens when Ramirez's replacement, Luis Cruz, goes from bit-part player to full-time player during the two months Ramirez is on the shelf? How will Matt Kemp perform following shoulder surgery? Ryu Hyun-jin is a talented pitcher coming over from Korea – will there be an adjustment period? This offseason's most expensive free-agent Zack Greinke (six years, $147m) had a platelet-rich plasma injection in his right elbow on 11 March – his last start went well, but that procedure doesn't exactly inspire confidence. Oh who am I kidding, they'll win the NL West by 10 games... right?
*2. Can the Giants do it again?*
All the dosh spent by the Dodgers just puts another chip on the shoulders of their rivals, the San Francisco Giants. Thing is, the Giants have two titles in three seasons while LA has, well, a really, really good cable deal. What would you prefer? If you believe that San Francisco were intimidated by all the action to their south during the offseason, well, guess again. After all, this is the team that stuck with Gregor Blanco in left field after Melky Cabrera got suspended for PEDs, while bringing in Marco Scutaro, who no-one could have predicted would be the engine in the Giants playoff drive (his OPS jumped from .684 in Colorado to .859 in San Francisco). The same poised philosophy seemed to dictate their work in the offseason, which was pretty much limited to resigning their own players – Marco Scutaro, Angel Pagan and Jeremy Affeldt – to new deals. With Pablo Sandoval's ongoing health issues and Blanco in left, there's an argument that the team could have benefited from bringing in another bat. However, that's always been the case with this pitching-rich team and with two titles in their back pocket, not to mention a whole lot of mojo, it's probably time to stop talking about that. Buster Posey and company will be in the thick of it again, with or without Tim Lincecum's 10-digit Spring Training ERA in the rotation.
*3. Will Washington wilt?*
Davey Johnson had his Nats in the NLCS until the St Louis Cardinals did their thing, pulling a rabbit out of a hat, overcoming a six-run lead in Game Five of the NLDS, not to mention overcoming a two-run deficit in the ninth. That's what the Cardinals do – it's not necessarily Washington's fault. The good news is the Nationals are set up for foreseeable future with young pitching and a well rounded line-up and now they have Rafael Soriano, who they signed for at least two years at $28m, the idea being that he will help prevent the Cards or anyone from crushing their World Series dreams in 2013. Starter Edwin Jackson bolted for the Cubs so the Nats replaced him with Dan Haren, which is pretty close to a straight swap. Otherwise, the pitching has a familiar look and the only thing that could upend the rotation is if Gio Gonzalez's name turns up in any more damaging Biogenesis information – that is, if MLB can somehow get access to it.
Stephen Strasburg will pitch without a leash this season, and Bryce Harper, who would break any leash anyone put on him, will look to better his rookie campaign (.270/.340/.477). If his Spring Training is anything to go by, that should be easy. All he has done is hit .476 with an OPS of 1.238, which is higher than Babe Ruth's career number, 1.163. Now, I know it's silly to write that, but when you put up video-game numbers, well, it gets a silly comparison in return. Sports Illustrated has the Nats winning it all, with Tom Verducci comparing Johnson's Nats to Johnson's 1986 Mets. If that's the case, it's going to be a long year for the pack in the NL East.
*4. The Red threat*
Dusty Baker's Reds were in the wrong place in the wrong time last October – that is, two games up on San Francisco in the NLDS. The Giants made a habit of coming from behind in their first two playoff series, and Cincinnati just happened to be on the wrong side of history. It's a shame because they had one heck of a season, winning 97 games and their second NL Central crown in three years. As in seasons past, it wasn't the Reds offense which carried the team, but rather their arms. They had the second best staff ERA in the National League, but even more impressive was their ability to keep off the DL. Only on one occasion in 2012 did one of their starting five fail to come out for their team, a picture of health. The same five will have another crack at it, with Aroldis Chapman heading back to the pen. Speaking of Chappy, he was supposed to start this season, which is one reason why they spent $21m over three seasons on Jonathan Broxton, who would have likely closed for the Reds. Now Chapman, who stated his preference to stay in the pen, will do just that, while fans in Cincinnati try and figure out who exactly is calling these shots. Regardless, their pen is stacked and now Joey Votto's line-up will try to put up Reds-like runs with a new center fielder in Shin-Soo Choo, who was acquired in the deal that sent Drew Stubbs to Cleveland. This is a team in its prime, in full win-now mode. They've managed to put together a talented bunch for around $100m, and should repeat in the NL Central. After a pair of first-round exits in their previous playoff appearances, whether or not they can take that next step remains to be seen.
*5. Will the Pirates buck their trend?*
My go-to Pittsburgh Pirates superfan, Patrick Conway, who has watched his team finish below .500 since he was old enough to know what a baseball was, offers his take on why they will and why they won't finally eclipse that magic number after 20 consecutive seasons of losing baseball.
Why they will finish above .500:
Gerrit Cole, the seventh-ranked prospect in baseball, will be up in June. Andrew McCutchen could be a top-three MVP candidate again despite falling back to earth in the last 45 games (as the Pirates did) of 2012. Starling Marte will show off his four tools, and look out if the power ever shows up. Neil Walker is behind only Brandon Phillips in NL second basemen – a great athlete, a smart player whose offense is improving. Pedro Alvarez will hit 35 HR, and benefit from having Marte/McCutchen/Walker on base a lot.
Why they won't finish above .500 (likely):
The pitching over-performed last year – AJ Burnett is unlikely to repeat last year's amazing performance at 36, when he was healthy (save for bunting a pitch into his eye and missing first month, haha). Wandy Rodriguez came late in the year and didn't pitch too well – expect more of that this season. Jeff Karstens should have made the All-Star Game, but I'm guessing he won't be able to complain this year. There won't be offensive production from first base and right field where other teams have it, or at shortstop and catcher come to think of it. Russell Martin couldn't produce in Yankee Stadium in a beefy lineup, so why will he produce in a ugly lineup with a big left field? He won't. And after another, more drastic collapse a season ago, how much confidence does this team have? They had a golden opportunity in a down year for the Central. They probably won't be that lucky this season, as the Reds, Cards and Brewers won't wait until September to put it together.
*6. The drugs (rules) don't work*
Another year, another bunch of names. Ho hum. I guess we've grown used to it by now. Despite Major League Baseball doing what it can to eliminate PEDs on the circuit, its war on drugs seems to be going about as well as everyone else's. I know, this is not an NL issue, it's a league-wide problem, but it had to go somewhere and because Ryan Braun plays for the Brewers, and because he's "MLB's public enemy number one", at least according to the USA Today, I'm sticking it in the Senior Circuit preview. If I had a choice I wouldn't put it anywhere, but these are the realities. Baseball players will never, ever stop trying to get an edge in the game because that edge can be worth millions of dollars, and baseball will keep on chasing them, as they did last week by suing the owner/operator of Biogenesis America, the defunct anti-aging clinic, and its former employees. No one seems to know if this "unusual" move will yield any information but if it does, it could impact pennant races, which is the more newsy bit of this piece. The names linked to Biogenesis that we know are Melky Cabrera, Alex Rodriguez, Ryan Braun, Gio Gonzalez, Francisco Cervelli and Nelson Cruz. However, we're now led to believe that there are some 90 names, and if MLB's tactic works, and they can prove "non-analytical positive" rather than a positive drugs test, as the current collective bargaining agreement allows, then you could have a bunch of players pulled out of circulation at the wrong times, at least potentially. Perhaps then fans will start to care – PEDs don't seem to have put a dent in MLB revenues, despite the headlines they garner.
*7. How bout dem Mets?*
Somebody get me a drink. The big discussion at a recent family event was how many wins the Mets would tally in 2013, and the range seemed to be somewhere between 62 on the low end and 70 on the high end. If they can finish .500 it will be another Mets miracle. Sandy Alderson is entering his third season as New York's general manager, as the team continues to sit tight and wait for the big contracts to expire before making any real big moves … in theory. Johan Santana, who pitched the first no-hitter in franchise history in 2012, is out for his remaining Mets career with possibly another tear in his shoulder. Most of his $25.5m will come off the books next season, as will Jason Bay's buyout of around $21m (they will pay him $3m next season), and so the payroll will drop from the roughly $90m it is today to in and around $55m by the offseason – their lowest in years. Will the fiscally challenged Wilpon family invest in some big name free-agents? That's what Mets fans all want to know. For now, they are in rebuilding mode, and are putting their faith in prospects such as pitcher Matt Harvey, who is in the starting rotation, minor league pitcher Zach Wheeler and catcher Travis d'Arnaud, who could arrive in New York soon. It's going to be another long season for newly appointed captain David Wright and company, not to mention their fans. At least there's the All-Star Game to look forward to … gulp.
*8. Will the Braves brothers in arms succeed in Atlanta?*
The Chipper Jones era ended in October with another disappointing loss, a fitting conclusion to an otherwise stellar Hall of Fame career. Jones made it to the postseason a remarkable 13 times, but only once did he win his last game, back in 1995. Now the Braves are moving on, and they wasted little time in trying to find a new identity for their franchise. They now have two Upton's – BJ, who signed a five-year, $75.25m contract, and the younger Justin, who was acquired in a trade with Arizona. Justin's attitude, less than hell bent for leather, didn't fit with manager Kirk Gibson and GM Kevin Towers' dirt-dog style, so they saw fit to ship out a player with a tremendous upside but who has also been inconsistent in the power department.
That's Atlanta's gain – if it works out, of course. The team's identity may have shifted, but it takes two to replace Chipper at third, with the Braves platooning the newly acquired Chris Johnson with Juan Francisco – Jones' initial successor, Martin Prado, was dealt to Arizona in the Upton deal. So it's the Upton show, with third outfielder Jayson Heyward and first baseman Freddie Freeman, the wildly inconsistent Dan Uggla at second, with Andrelton Simmons of WBC fame at short and Brian McCann catching, once he gets back from injury. Not bad. The rotation is also strong with Kris Medlen (9-0 0.97 as a starter) headlining a strong rotation that can rely on Craig Kimbrel who allowed exactly one double in 62.2 innings last season. Chipper is gone but Atlanta are better than a year ago – they'd better be, because the Nats are poised to do big things in their division.
*9. Will the Phillies fight to the finish?*
Philadelphia's run of five consecutive NL East titles ended in 2012 with the team putting together an extraordinary late season run to briefly get into wild-card contention, which bizarrely coincided with the team dealing Joe Blanton, Shane Victorino and Hunter Pence. Otherwise it was a mess, and it was only their strong finish that allowed them to land at .500. In 2013, the Phillies are counting on having a healthy Chase Utley and Ryan Howard, and hoping their lower cost free-agent additions, 3B Michael Young and LF Delmon Young, help boost an offense which was eighth in the NL in runs scored. Then there's highly touted prospect Ben Revere, who was acquired from the Twins for right-handed pitchers Vance Worley and Trevor May. He may fit perfectly in a team badly in need of some youth, but he's already in trouble in Philadelphia, saying he was looking forward to the cheesecake, rather than cheesesteak, when he hit town. Gulp.
Anyway, both Revere and Dominic Brown both had solid springs, which are good signs. The pitching should also bounce back a bit after underperforming in 2012. Roy Halladay did have a tough time in Clearwater, getting bounced around after a bad stomach virus, but Doc should recover. It's a tough division, and fans in Philly will be hoping Jonathan Papelbon gets his share of save opportunities.
*10. It's always in the Cards*
When players agent Scott Boras calls the free-agent process "corrupt", he's talking about cases such as the one surrounding Kyle Lohse. Here's a player that finished top 10 in NL Cy Young award voting and the Cardinals, knowing his age (34) and potential cost over several years, decided they didn't want to sign him. So, as the collective bargaining agreement allows, the Cardinals offered Lohse, a player who spent the entire season with one team, a $13.3m one-year deal, knowing he would turn it down. However, because they made that offer, they receive a first-round draft pick off any team that signs him, providing that team doesn't possess a top-10 pick. That now means that a player who is coming off a tremendous season has less value because of the pick attached to his signing. Is that unfair? Just asking.
More amazing is that the Cards are shrewd enough to forgo Lohse, who was 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA and recently signed with the Brewers for three years at $33m, GM John Mozeliak feeling that he has the pitching depth to overcome the loss of Lohse – not to mention Chris Carpenter, who is out for the year again. That's the theme with these Cardinals, they can cover missing pieces with their organizational depth, no problem – that's what they do. Young Shelby Miller, 22, will have his opportunity to pitch every day for the Cards, while closer Jason Motte likely heads to the DL with Mitchell Boggs tapped to be his capable replacement. Matt Carpenter can hold the fort for third baseman David Freese, who also starts the season on the DL, shifting Daniel Descalso into a starting role at second base. Young shortstop Peter Kozma, who was red-hot down the stretch, will replace Rafael Furcal, who is out with Tommy John surgery. Expect the Cardinals to handle all this without an issue, for their line-up to produce runs as they did last season, and to give the Reds and Brewers headaches all season long.
*Read David Lengel's 2013 American League preview – here*
Reported by guardian.co.uk 2 days ago.